Alessandro Sebastiani

America awoke almost in disbelief at Trump’s presidential victory. Few seemed aware of the red wave spreading across the nation, and even less so the Democratic establishment, which had staked everything on Kamala Harris. But was this victory truly so unpredictable? Weren’t there clear signals of a shifting tide?

After nearly eight years in the U.S., the changes were hard to miss. I began my career during Trump’s first term, lived through the COVID pandemic, and saw Biden scrape by with a narrow win in 2020. What I observed, however, was a deep-seated transformation and a growing sense of unease taking root in America. And in a paradox difficult for Europeans to understand, this unease and desire to upend the status quo targeted the Democrats, not Trump. He had shrewdly identified the wave to ride—the most divisive and populist one—capitalizing on backlash against the more radical elements of the Democratic agenda.

I had already written about this in my monograph, drawing a historical parallel to the fragile Italy of the Risorgimento and the post-World War I identity crisis. One could sense that Trump’s rhetoric would easily overpower Democratic ideals, filled with values to which American society isn’t deeply attached. Could votes have been swayed, perhaps even enough to elect America’s first female president? Yes, but only by understanding the nation’s true concerns rather than focusing on minor ideological battles. It was precisely this lack of insight and the entitlement of the Democratic establishment and its supporters that are leading America into four years of perilous events.

I don’t believe American democracy is in danger, nor do I foresee coups or authoritarian moves on the horizon. However, I do anticipate a firm tightening of civil rights, education policies, and social protections—all issues the Democrats were supposed to safeguard, but instead exacerbated. Through a dogmatic and, at times, corrupt ideology, they handed America to Trump on a silver platter. The red wave was foreseeable and even manageable, but the Democrats chose to fight ideological battles, pushing and ridiculing major social issues, growing ever more disconnected from the reality of an America struggling with inequality and inflation. The problem wasn’t the issues themselves, but how they were addressed. Now, they have four years to regroup, reconnect with reality, and, hopefully, reverse the populist trend.

A piece of advice to conclude this short analysis: history isn’t just a list of dull events to memorize—or cherry-pick at will. Understanding what happened in the past helps us see how the pieces are moving on today’s international chessboard. Doing this exercise, however, requires humility and an unbiased look at the slow flow of events, free from ideological interpretations. Selecting and distorting the past for the sake of ideals or goals only leads to failure, often with serious side effects.

For those interested in a deeper exploration of these themes, I recommend reading the preface and introduction of my volume, published by Cambridge University Press. You can find it here!